Monte Carlo & history

Battle-test against thousands of markets

A single projection is one future. Ember runs your plan through thousands of simulated market paths and through actual market history, then tells you the chance it survives — and what to change when it doesn't.

99%chance of success

On track — your plan survived 1,989 of 2,000 historical futures (pot never depleted).

Source: bootstrapBlock: 8yData: v1-2026-05-27-joint-uk-us-global-fxRuns: 2,000Basis: Real terms

Terminal value range (10–90%): £2,071,959.71 £27,411,755.47

Net-worth spectrum

Today's money · real terms
Worst 10% (p10)Median (p50)Best 10% (p90)

When does the money run out?

In the 1% of futures that fail, the pot most often runs dry around age 85; earliest age 68. The other 99% never deplete.

Anonymised sample plan: a UK earner who retires to Spain via the UAE — generated by the real Ember engine.

Monte-Carlo simulation and every 30-year retirement since 1928 — in your currencies, not just the S&P.

Historical backtest since 1928/Success levers ranked/Guardrail strategies
See it on your own numbers → Simulations

01

What you're looking at

The spectrum of outcomes: the fan of simulated paths, the survival percentage, and the depletion-age histogram for the paths that fail — so risk has a shape, not just a number.

02

Why it's different

The historical backtest runs against your real multi-currency portfolio, and levers like “partner retires two years later” or a spending guardrail show exactly how much safety they buy.

Previews on this page describe Ember’s real, shipped surfaces — nothing here is a mock-up. Your own numbers replace every example the moment you sign in.

Explore the rest

Start free — 72 hours of everything

No card required. Every account gets the full modelling engine for 72 hours, then drops to a free plan — your data stays.